Wise Wealth Advisors

D.Muthukrishnan (Muthu), Certified Financial Planner- Personal Financial Advisor

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Archive for the ‘Muthu’s Musings’ Category

Points to remember

Posted by Muthu on February 8, 2018

1) Equity beats inflation and provides superior return over other asset classes in the long run.

2) Good years are more than bad years. Based on the past we can say 70% of the time it is good years.

3) Not possible to time the market. Need to stay invested through both good and bad years to reap the long term return.

4) 10% correction once a year is a normal. Should not be surprised whenever it occurs. Only non occurrence should be a surprise.

5) 20% correction once in few years and 30% fall once in a decade is also very normal. Need to live through this roller coaster ride to enjoy high returns which equities offer.

6) Better to avoid checking portfolio during the periods of market turbulence. Once a year review is good enough, more so during bear markets.

7) Need to withstand emotional pain during the corrections and falls. Any adverse reaction to emotional pain would convert temporary notional loss into permanent real loss.

8) Invest when you’ve money. Redeem when you need money. Ensure there is not less than 10 year time gap between both.

9) Have strong filters when you consume market news. If it is not possible, you would be better off ignoring such news and updates.

10) Patience, discipline and staying the course would ensure you reach your goals and become wealthy. Always work on developing these traits.

Posted in General, Muthu's Musings, Stock Market | 4 Comments »

Barber and Odean

Posted by Muthu on January 26, 2018

Happy Republic Day.

Google for Barber and Odean, you’ll get articles and studies based on the work conducted by two Professors Brad M.Barber and Terrance Odean. They have studied in detail about the behaviour of individual investors in the market.

Their study has also been cited in the book ‘Simple but not easy’ by Richard Oldfield.

I’ve extracted the following details from the above book.

These professors studied in details performance of 78,000 individual investors for the period 1991 to 1996.

They classified people on the frequency of their trading. Higher the trading higher would be the turn over. A 100% turnover means a portfolio was completely changed every year. 50% turnover means half the portfolio was changed in a year and so on.

The most active (in term of trading) 15,000 investors had a turnover of more than 100% and made average annual return of 10%

The least active 15,000 investors had a turnover of just 1% and made average annual return of 17.5%

There is an excess annual return of 7.5% for buying right and staying the course patiently.

This is one more example to reinforce why we always insist staying the course not only during ups and downs of market but also during the periods of underperformance of funds.

We’ve explained to you in the past why our churn would be less and most of the time it would simply be staying the course. Chaser is a loser. Studies shows even the best of the investors or fund managers underperform 30% of the time.

As I’ve often repeated, our main job is to make you stay the course at all times.

You’re all similar to the above investors who got more returns because of a very less churn and being patient.

This is your strength. Always focus on the same.

Posted in Basics, Muthu's Musings, Stock Market, Wealth | 2 Comments »

Bad News and Good News

Posted by Muthu on January 2, 2018

Bad News: Inflation destroys wealth

Good News: Compounding builds wealth


Bad News: Discipline is painful

Good News: Outcome is enjoyable


Bad News: Equities are extremely volatile

Good News: Equities create immense wealth


Bad News: Media amplifies greed and fear

Good News: Good books and blogs impart wisdom


Bad News: Short term is unpredictable

Good News: Long term is reasonably predictable


Bad News: Bad things can happen any time

Good News: Proper planning & risk covers can reduce negative impact


Bad News: Life is ephemeral

Good News: Most of us would live to reach old age


Bad News: Cannot control returns

Good News: Can control savings


Bad News: Markets are not under our control

Good News: Behaviour is under our control


Bad News: Disruptions can happen anytime anywhere

Good News: Continuous learning is the available antidote

Posted in General, Muthu's Musings, Wealth | 5 Comments »

12th Year

Posted by Muthu on January 1, 2018

Wishing you and your family a wonderful 2018.

We never believe in forecasts, especially of short term. In the beginning of 2017, there were many predictions that markets would do badly due to demonetisation. GST implementation strengthened these voices further. However Sensex has delivered around 28% return in 2017. As a policy, we don’t make any index forecasts and would stick to the same for 2018 as well.

If past is anything to go by there are more good years than bad years. Roughly markets are up 70% of the time.  Need to stay invested during the 30% bad years as well, to reap the benefit of good years.

As our clients, you all have created significant wealth. This would accelerate in the years to come. We hold views based on broader picture. India’s GDP per capita would continue to grow over next decade and this would result in many companies doing well. When companies do well, earnings would grow. Growing earnings would get reflected in stock prices and hence in mutual fund NAVs.

We believe that there is huge potential for wealth creation over next decade though the ride, as always, would be bumpy. You’ve been sticking to your investments despite bull and bear markets, positive and negative news flows and your own emotions of greed and fear. Once we buy right, all we need to do is to sit tight.

We are entering into 12th year of our profession today and are grateful to you for being our client.

Though we started the profession in January 2007, it took around 3 years for us to get our focus right. We then realised investor management is more important than investment management. Choosing investments or making portfolio changes is only 10% of the work. 90% is focusing on investor management, which is managing behaviour, emotions and psychology.

By helping you focus on what is important, we’re able to make you achieve excellent results. Through all our communications and interactions, we would continue to focus on investor psychology and behaviour.

Good investing is very simple. It is like daily exercise or consuming good diet. Though these are simple to understand, very difficult to implement on a consistent basis. Our focus would continue to be making you do these simple things consistently. Simple and right discipline, when repeated regularly, would lead to exponential results.

Be it health, wealth, career or relationships what we do everyday matters. To quote Darren Hardey

“You will never change your life until you change something you do daily. The secret of your success is found in your daily routine.”

Stick to simple and effective discipline. Keep reinforcing it regularly. You’ll then be successful in whatever you focus.

Once again, wishing you a great 2018.

Posted in General, Muthu's Musings | 2 Comments »

Preserving wealth

Posted by Muthu on December 2, 2017

“The father buys, the son builds, the grandchild sells and his son begs.” says a Scottish Proverb.

The Chinese have a saying, “Fu bu guo san dai”, which means wealth never survives three generations.

Traditional wisdom holds good for modern days as well. I come across data, articles and stories in this regard.

It is very difficult to be rich. Only 1% can be in top 1%. According to Credit Suisse if you have more than Rs.5 crores, you are among top 1% of the world population. A million dollars (Rs.6.5 crores) puts you in top 0.7%.

We have to get rich only once as long as we don’t do anything foolish. As both investor and advisor, our focus is always on avoiding permanent loss of capital and at the same time to grow wealth at a reasonable rate.

Ben Carlson in a recent article points out that about 70% of people who receive a financial windfall lose it within a few years. Also nearly 80% of NFL players are broke or bankrupt after being out of the league for two years. Sixty percent of NBA players are broke after being out for 5 years.

If you are interested like me in studying about wealth, there is so much of information and data available.

The above example shows how difficult it is to stay rich in our generation itself. I’ve also seen people lose their wealth by taking unwanted risks.

I came across an article in Time magazine. It says that 70% of wealthy families lose their wealth by the second generation, and a stunning 90% by the third generation.

Out of the people who get rich, not all stay rich. Even amongst those who are able to stay rich, 70% lose it in second generation and by third generation it becomes 90%.

One way to minimise such happening is to teach children and grand children the value of money and the art of money management. There is no such thing as easy money and by design only few are endowed with good wealth. If we don’t value something we have, it would start slipping away. Not to talk us up, but having a financial advisor who can be a mentor and coach would definitely help.

This should also make us ponder over giving, as part of wealth management. Not all focus on giving as much as saving and spending. We all create wealth because of the opportunities provided by the society and we need to give at least something back.  In our case, our family has decided to allocate 10% of our wealth for charity when I turn 60. There is no hard and fast rule for giving. But we thought 10% is the least we should do.

Like all things in life, wealth is also ephemeral. By teaching next generation, you can at least prolong it. By giving, you can make positive impact in the life of less privileged.

Some points to ponder for the weekend.

Posted in Giving, Muthu's Musings, Wealth | 3 Comments »